2019: Oscar Predictions

It’s already that time again to sit down and watch the awards given out to all the best movies that came out over the past year. Luckily, I’ve managed to seen every single movie nominated this year, so I figured I should throw out my predictions. The last few years you could see the momentum around “who will win,” but this year is a little different. There are not as many locks this year which will make things more interesting.

Just a (pretty cool) side note; I haven’t miss one category in the last two years, so I’m currently sitting at 100% I know that can’t last, I can almost guarantee I’m (at least) getting a few wrong this year. Do you think I can do it again? Follow below and let me know if you agree or not.

Something to mention is the fact that The Academy had two more slots to fill in the Best Picture category — which they left vacant. In my opinion, more movies creates more buzz, so I don’t understand their decision or why the voting even allows it. Average movie goers will go and see movies nominated for Best Picture, so why not add more fuel to the fire. Ten movies ‘you need to see’ instead of eight is better for the industry. Why leave a film like If Beale Street Could Talk out when there are empty slots available?

It would be nice to know how that process works and why it happens. Were there four movies that all tied in votes, so the last two slots had to remain vacant? Let us in on the rules.

Cinematography —

My Pick: Alfonso Cuaron

Verdict: I don’t think there is a sleeper for this category.

Alfonso Curaron is set to have a big night with Roma. One of the first awards he will win on the night is for Cinematography. Roma is a masterclass of art and there’s so much luxury on screen that I would be shocked if anything could overtake it. Some movies use cinematography to add to the film, Roma is the other way around (if that makes sense).

I don’t think there is a sleeper for this category.

Original Screenplay —

My Pick: Green Book

Verdict: Too close to call, it could easily go to The Favourite.

Green Book follows a working-class Italian-American bouncer becoming the driver of an African-American classical pianist on a tour of venues through the 1960s American South. Despite their differences, the two men soon develop an unexpected bond while confronting racism and danger in an era of segregation. The Favourite takes place in early 18th century England, a frail Queen Anne occupies the throne and her close friend, Lady Sarah, governs the country in her stead. When a new servant, Abigail, arrives, her charm endears her to Sarah. 

Both are very strong contenders, so this is a coin toss — it can go either way.

Adapted Screenplay —

My Pick: If Beale Street Could Talk

Verdict: Too close to call, it could easily go to BlacKkKlansman.

If Beale Street Could Talk follows a young black couple in the 1970s. Friends since childhood, the devoted couple dream of a future together, but their plans are derailed when Fonny is arrested for a crime he did not commit. BlacKkKlansman follows the true story of a black police detective who infiltrates a local chapter of the Ku Klux Klan. From there they team up to take down the organization that aims to sanitize its violent rhetoric to appeal to the mainstream.

Both are very strong contenders, so this is a coin toss — it can go either way.

Best Animated Film —

My Pick: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Verdict: The sleeper for this category is Incredibles 2.

This year is a really strong year for animated film and while the whole category is stacked, I think Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will take home the cake. There is so much to love about this film, not only from the amazing work put into the ‘comic-style’ animation; but the story, message and the fact that it’s something for all ages.

The sleeper for this category is Incredibles 2 for the same reasons. Pixar always knows what thier doing, so it could definitely take the win.

Supporting Actress —

My Pick: Regina King

Verdict: The deep sleeper for this category is Amy Adams.

Regina King has been a strong presence on screen for a long time — and that rightfully continues with her newest work in the adaptation of James Baldwin’s novel If Beale Street Could Talk. You could really feel the drama, struggle and support throughout the film — from little things like a momentary pause, to a loud, raw and emotional outbreak.

The deep sleeper to keep an eye out for this category is Amy Adams.

Supporting Actor —

My Pick: Mahershala Ali

Verdict: I don’t think there is a sleeper for this category.

This is one of the few awards of the night that I feel is a lock. Mahershala Ali continues to be amazing in all of his roles and he’s the clear front runner again for his performance in Green Book. He plays his role masterfully and you can really feel what he is struggling with in the film. No spoilers! He continues to be one of my favorite actors right now in Hollywood, so I’m bias too.

I don’t think there is a sleeper for this category.

Best Director —

My Pick: Alfonso Cuaron

Verdict: Too close to call, it could easily go to Yorgos Lanthimos.

I’m not sure how many people have really watched Roma from start to finish, but you will understand why Alfonso will ultimately take home this award on the big night. Like I mentioned above in ‘Cinematography,’ it’s a masterclass of art due to the amount of luxury on the screen. I think these two rewards will go hand in hand.

I wouldn’t call it a ‘sleeper,’ but I believe it’s close. For that reason, it can easily go to Yorgos Lanthimos for his amazing work in The Favourite. It’s another masterclass of luxury on screen.

Best Actress —

My Pick: Glenn Close

Verdict: The sleeper for this category is Olivia Coleman.

This is one of the last movies I saw — and I now completely understand why Glenn Close has been getting all the attention during the award season in this category. She really plays the role magnificently and her presence continues to grow on screen as the movie carries on. You can feel the storm she’s been holding inside build by the minute.

There is a sleeper to mention in Olivia Coleman, but I don’t think this will sway out of Glenn’s hold.

Best Actor —

My Pick: Romi Malek

Verdict: Too close to call, it could easily go to Christian Bale.

This was the hardest choice for me… Christian Bale nails Dick Cheney and Romi Malek literally transforms into Freddie Mercury. That’s not to say the other nominees don’t deserve praise as well — some would’ve won the award in years’ past, but his year’s category is stacked! What this ultimately came down to for me was a second watch of Bohemian Rhapsody, since it’s already available to own. After watching Malek’s performance again, I’d have to give him a slight advantage.

Still, I believe both are very strong contenders, so it remains a coin toss — it can go either way.

Best Picture —

My Pick: Green Book

Verdict: Too close to call — this award could easily go to Roma or The Favourite with the sleeper in this category being Bohemian Rhapsody.

What seems to happen every single year is a battle between two movies. Two years ago it was La La Land and Moonlight, and last year it was Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. This year I could see any of these four films winning; The Favourite, Green Book, Roma or Bohemian Rhapsody. 

The Favourite and Roma both conjured up 10 nominations this year, and rightfully so. There are so many different aspects working at high levels; acting, directing, screenplay, cinematography, etc. If you want to know my feelings on Roma, they have been noted in my Top Movies of 2018 post.

Bohemian Rhapsody is the clear and dangerous sleeper in this category. Having already won Best Picture at the Golden Globes with an incredibly strong and amazing performance by Rami Malek, this too could take home the grand prize. I know some people are upset that this is nominated for Best Picture, but I think it holds it’s own.

While any of the four could win, I have a clear winner and nothing has moved the needle since I saw it in theater. My pick for 2019’s Best Picture is still Green Book.

There was just something about this movie that worked (for me) from beginning to end. Maybe it was the story, maybe it was the acting, the writing, the relationship between the two characters, the music, the meaning behind the story — it was probably all of it. It was the one of the few movies I saw this year where I was completely entertained (in every aspect) from the first scene to the credits rolling.

“You never win with violence. You only win when you maintain your dignity.”

I understand the real-life drama behind this film, (which could hinder it’s chances) but I hope it doesn’t take away the award it deserves. Bohemian Rhapsody & The Favourite were absolutely amazing too, but I think Green Book edges out the competition for Best Picture. Everything is subjective and I won’t be upset with any of these movies winning…. it’s just my opinion on what I’d like to se.

Let’s see what happens Sunday, February 24th — it should be interesting. I’d be shocked if I get all these right.

Cheers,

Matt.